Multilateralism on the Brink: What’s at Stake at COP30?

This blog post is co-authored by Kate Yeo, Policy and Communications Coordinator

In a few days, 50,000 delegates from around the world will descend on Belém, Brazil for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). COP30 marks three decades since the first COP, and 10 years since the Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to 1.5°C – a threshold of devastating global warming. 

That promise is hanging by a thread. Global emissions are higher, our planet hotter, and our politics more fractured than ever before.

Multilateralism is under siege

COP30 will unfold against a backdrop of deep geopolitical turbulence. Multilateralism—the idea that countries can come together to solve global problems—is under siege on every front, from peace and security to trade and public health. 

Countries that built this so-called “rules-based order” have too often broken their own rules. The U.S.’ blatant obstruction in international fora–including threatening sanctions against countries that supported a global shipping emissions fee, and vetoing UN resolutions to stop the genocide in Gaza–drives home what many in the Global South have long known: the international system was never neutral. 

Meanwhile, the climate crisis deepens. Even as the International Court of Justice affirmed in July that governments have a legal duty to protect people from climate harm, countries’ latest national climate commitments (called NDCs in UN-speak) remain dangerously insufficient. Scientists warn that the world will likely overshoot 1.5°C before the end of this decade. And already, seven of the nine planetary boundaries that keep Earth stable have been breached.

Yet, we see the biggest fossil fuel producers continuing to double down on pollution. No major oil and gas company has made plans to slow down extraction, let alone phase out fossil fuels to align with a 1.5°C pathway. A new analysis from Oil Change International shows that four Global North “Planet Wrecker” countries (the U.S., Australia, Norway and Canada) have expanded oil and gas production by 40% since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. In the U.S., Trump is exacerbating the problem by bullying countries into buying U.S. exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as part of tariff negotiations. 

Analysis and Graph by Oil Change International

The case for cautious optimism – and why COP still matters

While it’s easy to give in to despair, USCAN continues to practice radical optimism. Around the world, we see glimmers of the future we could build.

The case for solar and wind has never been stronger:

• In 2024, newly installed renewable electricity cost less than new fossil fuel-fired power plants. 

• Led by developing countries, renewables became the world's leading source of electricity in the first half of 2025, driving slight declines in coal and gas use. 

• China installed more solar capacity in a single year than the U.S. has in its entire history, with India and Brazil rapidly following suit.

Graphic: Canary Media

These wins demonstrate that a transition is underway, and prove that change is possible when governments align policy with planetary needs. But let’s be clear: what remains missing is ambition, justice and accountability – precisely why the COP process still matters.

Despite the political theater and laggard progress, COPs are still the only global arena where those most impacted by climate change can directly confront those most responsible. 

It is at COP27 that global civil society, after decades of campaigning, forced the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund – a first step that holds wealthy nations responsible for supporting low-income countries in damage caused by climate-related disasters. 

A year later at COP28, despite significant headwinds and opposition, a global campaign succeeded in securing a historic mention of the need to transition off fossil fuels – a glaring omission from both the original UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. 

Image: Oliver Kornblihtt, Mídia NINJA, Flickr, CC BY-NC 2.0

Admittedly, the failures of last year’s COP29 in Baku cast a long shadow. Developing countries called for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance provision – a fraction of the amount researchers say is needed to fund adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage in developing countries. Wealthy nations responded with a hollow $300 billion/year pledge which still leaves more questions than answers. 

We are also clear-eyed about the failures of the broader climate governance architecture: for 30 years, emissions have continued to climb even as countries gather annually to discuss new commitments. Movements are right to call for an urgent overhaul of the COP process to ensure it is fit for purpose.

Amid this crisis of trust, COP30 must prove that multilateralism can still deliver for people and the planet. That means centering Indigenous and frontline voices, accelerating a just fossil fuel phaseout, refusing to let the urgency of the moment be diluted by diplomatic theater, and ending the power and influence of fossil fuel lobbyists and other Big Polluters within the talks. USCAN is ready to be a part of this fight.

The world must now ask: In the absence of U.S. leadership, will countries step up to defend–and reinvent–the global systems that hold us together? Will global governments stand firm against the Trump administration’s bullying tactics?

Showing up for our future

USCAN refuses to give up hope. We’ll be in Belém alongside people’s movements from across Brazil and around the world, testifying to the truth of what is happening in our communities and demanding the climate leadership to meet this moment. 

We will not let the international order crack under the weight of extractivism, militarism, and corporate greed. Even in a fractured world, COP30 still represents something worth fighting for: the belief that collective action—rooted in justice—remains our best hope for a livable future.

Stay tuned as we explore U.S. civil society’s demands at COP, the role of U.S. electeds beyond the federal government, and how movements are rising to demand and win a just and livable future for all.