The UN’s Latest Climate Report is Out — We are Nowhere Near a Fossil Fuel Phaseout.

This blog post is co-authored with Sriram Madhusoodanan, USCAN Director of Climate Policy & Advocacy.

Every year since 2021 before the COP climate talks, the UN tallies up countries’ national climate plans. This year’s synthesis report, released ahead of COP30, shows just how far behind the world still is.

We summarize the 54-page report - and all its implications - for you here. 

Recap: What’s an “NDC”?

NDC stands for “Nationally Determined Contribution” – countries’ climate action plans under the Paris Agreement. Think of NDCs as each country’s climate assignment: how they’ll cut emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and help limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Only 13 of 195 countries met the original February 2025 NDC submission deadline. The UN Synthesis Report covered only the 64 parties which submitted their NDCs by September 30, or roughly 30% of global emissions. The UN then updated its analysis in November based on additional NDC submissions.

As of November 10, 2025, close to 90 countries still have not submitted their NDCs. Which means the Synthesis Report is by no means a comprehensive analysis of where we’re at. Still, it provides an important and timely snapshot of the challenges the world faces as COP30 goes underway.

📝 TAKEAWAY #1: We’re still on track for more than 2°C of warming (eek!)

Here’s the math: to have a fighting chance to stay under 1.5°C, global emissions need to fall 60% by 2035, relative to 2019. 

But current NDCs get us to just a 12% drop — and that’s only if countries actually follow through. This trajectory pushes us towards 2.3–2.5°C of warming. 

If countries stick to current policies (what they’re actually doing), that number climbs to 2.8°C.

And with Trump pulling the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again, the ambition gap will only grow. The U.S. NDC will officially lapse early next year.

📝 TAKEAWAY #2: Climate impacts are accelerating globally

Nearly 80% of countries now report experiencing loss and damage from climate disasters — up from 45% in their last NDCs. These impacts range from destroyed infrastructure to cultural loss and forced migration. (So forgive us if we’re skeptical of Bill Gates’ recent memo that downplays the severity of the climate crisis.)

Graphics by swissinfo.ch

These outcomes are terribly disappointing, but not surprising.

As USCAN and our allies have pointed out time and time again, Global North countries are not negotiating in good faith. Rather than taking seriously the threat of fossil fuels, some of the world’s wealthiest nations–the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Norway–have overwhelmingly driven up oil and gas production since the Paris Agreement. They point the finger at developing economies while failing to break their own addiction to fossil fuels, and failing to deliver real climate finance. 

📝 TAKEAWAY #3: WTF - Where’s the Finance?!

Speaking of finance: the lack of public finance for a just transition remains a critical issue. Ending the era of fossil fuels requires financial support. According to the UNFCCC (the foundational agreement of the climate talks), this funding must come from developed countries to developing countries. In the Synthesis Report, countries told the UN  they’ll need a total of $1.3 trillion for mitigation and $560 billion for adaptation to deliver on their NDCs – that’s just from 64 submissions.

Economists estimate that globally, developing countries alone will need $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to meet their Paris Agreement goals. But only a fraction of this total is flowing to Global South countries, and the overwhelming majority is in the form of loans. Perversely these are worsening debt distress in recipient countries.

📝 TAKEAWAY #4: Local voices and Indigenous rights are (rightfully) gaining ground.

The new wave of NDCs highlights a growing shift toward “whole-of-society” approaches: countries are bringing in local governments, civil society, and businesses. 

Yet truly transformative NDCs must center—not just consult—the voices of those most impacted by the crisis, including Indigenous Peoples and frontline communities who have long led the fight for climate justice. 

The dismal failures of the last 29 COPs underscore that UNFCCC reform is essential. Much needed change cannot happen without kicking Big Polluters out of the COP and ensuring that these processes deliver tangible results for people around the world. Without doing so, COPs will lose what little legitimacy remains–and risk turning into just another corporate trade show hawking half-baked greenwashing solutions.

The time is now for a Just Transition. Scientists have warned us for years that there is no credible path to 1.5°C without a fast, fair, and full phaseout of fossil fuels. Yet, in the latest round of NDCs, less than half the countries have targets to cut fossil fuels in their electricity mix by 2030, and none have set concrete goals to reduce oil and gas production.

We now expect that global temperature rise will, at least temporarily, exceed 1.5°C. But the window to act still exists – as do proven solutions, namely, cheap and readily available technologies like solar and wind power. As global movements are demanding at COP30: we are long overdue for a transition that centers people.  

The Just Transition movement is rapidly growing: Colombia announced earlier this year that it will host the world’s first ever International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026. Brazilian President Lula, at the opening of COP30, called for roadmaps that will “enable humankind … to overcome its dependence on fossil fuels.” These are promising political signals and will hopefully supercharge momentum for a fossil fuel phaseout.

At COP30, countries have a window of opportunity to act. And without the U.S. in the room, there may be an opportunity for others to pick up the slack and advance the transition we so urgently need. The cost of delay grows every day.

‼️ Read USCAN’s full COP30 fact sheet and demands here: bit.ly/uscancop30‼️